European Market Update: Germany moving closer to a technical recession

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Najnowsze KBC: While Hungary’s delegation meets the IMF, the government is ready to change legislationDAILY FOREX AND DOW JONES RECOMMENDED LEVELSAsian Market Update: Quiet session ahead of Bund auction; China assures its banks are well positionedUS Market Update: Dow +98 S&P +13 NASDAQ +29European Market Update: Fitch noted that France seen holding onto AAA rating for this year aids risk appetite; Euro nations sovereign review likely to be resolved by end of JanuaryKBC: Hungary’s budget deficit probably below 3% of GDP in 2011DAILY FOREX AND DOW JONES RECOMMENDED LEVELS Najpopularniejsze World-Signals.com: Negative US fundamental data moved EUR/USD with 80 pips.Forex linksEnergy Market PreviewForex hedge fund managementKBC: Higher US PPI extends negative correction in the regionFXCM: Yen Recovers; Euro Marks TimeKBC: CE currencies weaken on global equity sell offNasdaq (qqqq), still working to perfection.... Navigator FXtraders.eu » Article Articles menu Print Print directly Print preview Add to bookmarks Tell a friend Adjust font Enlarge Decrease Article content 11.01.2012 12:40 Wednesday ***Economic Data***
- (EU) ECB: €1.9B borrowed in overnight loan facility v €1.5B prior; €485.9B parked in deposit facility (fresh all-time record level) vs. €481.9B prior
-(DE) Germany 2011Maastricht Budget Level: -1.0% v -3.5% y/y
- (DE) Germany 2011Maastricht Annual GDP: 3.0% v 3.0%e
- (DE) Germany Q4 GDP -0.25% q/q - Stats Office
- (ES) Spain Nov Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: -7.0% v -5.4%e; Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -7.0% v -4.5% prior
- (TU) Turkey Nov Current Account: -$5.2B v -$5.2Be
- (IT) Italy Q3 cumulative Deficit to GDP Ratio: 4.3% v 5.3% prior
- (UK) Nov Visible Trade Balance: -£8.6B v-£8.4Be; Total Trade Balance: -£2.6B v -£2.4Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -£5.0B v -£5.0Be
- (GR) Greece Dec Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 2.7%e v 2.9% prior; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 2.7%e v 2.8% prior
- (PT) Portugal Dec Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.6% v 4.0% prior
- (PT) Portugal Dec CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.5%e
- (PT) Portugal Nov Construction Works Index: 66.3 v 65.2 prior

Fixed Income:
- (EU) ECB allotted $5.7B in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.58% vs. $25.5B prior
- Slovakia Debt Agency (ARDAL): Plans to issue 5-year EUR-denominated Bonds; Guidance seen 305-315bps over mid-swaps
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK2.5B vs. SEK2.5B indicated in 3.5% 2022 Bonds; Yield 1.6835%
- (DE) Germany sold €3.15B in new 0.75% Feb 2017 BOBL; Avg Yield 0.90% v 1.11% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.8x v 2.1x prior
- (UK) DMO sold £3.0B in 3.75% Conventional 2021 Gilts; avg yield 2.085% v 2.282% prior; Bid-to-cover:2.15x v 1.61x prior; Tail: 0.2bps v 0.9bps prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- Germany heading towards a technical recession
- German Chancellor Merkel hosts Italian PM Monti later today
- Bank proposed Greek bond swap nears deal
- Germany 5-year BOBL auction yield below 1.0% for the first time ever
- Mitt Romney wins US New Hampshire Republican Party Primary

Equities:
FTSE 100 -0.20% at 5684, DAX -0.25% at 6149, CAC-40 +0.40% at 3223, IBEX-35 -0.20% at 8456, FTSE MIB +0.60% at 14,941, SMI -0.25% at 6035

- European shares were trading in positive territory but failed to make any impressive rally due to increasing concerns over the European debt crisis. Germany's first estimate of the Q4 GDP showed a contraction although Stats office noted that 2012 domestic growth could remain robust. However, German bond auction was well received, with a lower yield and higher bid-to-cover.
- UK supermarket J Sainsbury [SBRY.UK] fell after reporting strong Christmas sales but noted that 2012 will see consumers spending cautiously.

Speakers:
- Germany's Stat Office commented that German economy started 2012 on a weaker step but domestic growth could remain robust in 2012
- Spain's new government said to force banks to cut the values of foreclosed homes by as much as half as part of its plan to clean up lenders' balance sheets
- China Premier Wen reiterated the view that the global economic situation was extremely complicated and that cooperation between US and China is beneficial while confrontation hurt both countries
- US Tsy Sec Geithner commented that he did have productive talks with Chinese leaders and was encouraged by China's growth trajectory. He also noted that there has been encouraging signs of strength in US economy recently
- US Official commented that China did recognize its excessive reliance on external demand
And spoke about continued appreciation of the CNY currency
- EU's Rehn reiterated his view that might be only at the beginning of the end in dealing with EU crisis but still had chance of resolving the crisis but bold decisions were needed. He hoped to conclude discussions on new treaty in coming weeks and added that a fiscal stimulus in Germany was not the answer the situation in the Euro Zone. Confident that Greece would reach an agreement with its creditors in the coming weeks and the country would remain a member of the EMU
- EU's Rehn also reiterated that Hungary needed to amend its central bank law as a precondition for any new loan agreement
- Greece Econ Min Chrisochoides commented that the country's 2011 Budget Deficit expected to reach 9.6% of GDP (target is 9.0%)
- UAE Foreign Min commented that its sovereign wealth fund could raise its presence in Greece and also noted that
UAE businesses were also interested in the country
- Spain Budget Min Montoro commented that Spain's economy was on the verge of recession
- Ireland Fin Min Noonan reiterated the view that it was absurd to consider a second bailout for Ireland as the country was meeting all targets in current bailout program
- Spain Debt Treasury (Tesoro) stated that it planned to reduce its 2012 net issuance by €12B to now total €36B. The Tesoro stated that 2012 Gross issuance seen at €86B compared to €95.6B issued in 2011. It added that no new net funding from T-bill issuance and that bond auctions to be published weekly in 2012
- Denmark Central Bank published its stress tests on lenders and concluded that liquidity of banks were at a good level. The most significant challenge in coming years was expiration of State-guaranteed senior debt issued in 2009-10 period.- Banks should continue adjustment without guarantees
- Moody's commented on Turkey and noted that the country was more prone to shifts in investor appetite and the EU crisis could limits Turkey's corporate funding ability. The agency forecasted 2012 GDP growth between 2.5% to 3.5% range
- Hungary gov't spokesperson reiterated that it was open to discussion regarding its central bank laws with EU
- Czech Public Affairs (VV) Party to support return of property to churches in a move that was said to avert risk ofruling Govt from collapsing
- Goldman Chief Economist Hatzius stated that he expected US growth to be below trend in 2012 with further possibility of Fed easing further in 2012
- Vietnam Central Bank Gov Van Binh commented that the Dong currency to depreciate between 2-3% during 2012
- India might not seek waiver under US sanctions against Iran oil imports and telling its refiners to reduce Iranian oil imports and seek alternatives
- Explosion said to have occurred in northern Tehran section of Iran. Nuclear scientist who supervised a department at Natanz uranium enrichment facility was reported to have been killed in explosion

Currencies:
- FX markets were quiet for the majority of the European morning ahead of the Sarkozy-Lagarde and Merkel-Monti meetings in Paris and Berlin. Dealers did note that overnight weakness in EUR/USD still appeared reluctant to test immediately lower and was vulnerable to any headline excuse for to rally. The pair did remain within is recent hourly range
- The GBP was softer following its wider Trade deficit data and was probing the 1.5420 area against the greenback as the NY morning ap[proached. Dealers did note that GBP/USD did have difficulty to close above 1.5490 yesterdayand this was a technical warning ahead of today's session.

Political/ In the Papers:
- The FT reported that there are signs that the strains in the European funding markets are easing. The benchmark short-term EU bank lending rates (3-month Euribor) have declined for 14 straight sessions. In addition, the extra premium EU banks must pay to swap Euros into US dollars has hit the lowest level since late October. This suggests the ECB's three-year lending program has helped improve money market conditions.
- The concerns among euro zone government officials that Greek bailout costs could eventually rise is one of the factors which has slowed the debt talks. There are concerns that EU governments might have to refinance Greece until the country is able to return to the markets.
- Certain Spanish banks are developing more properties, despite the declines in housing prices. There are concerns that the moves to develop additional properties could worsen Spain's property glut. Certain banks have been refinancing loans to developers which are unlikely to be repaid in order to avoid write downs. Some analysts believe that Spanish banks have yet to markdown their property assets to realistic levels.
- The Telegraph reported that analysts at UBS have criticized the Bank of England (BoE) for not having an emergency support plan for the banking system. The analysts believe that the lack of a backstop for the banking sector has already led to higher funding costs for UK banks. Some British banks are paying more to issue debt than their EU peers.
- IMF inspectors returned to Ireland to ensure bailout conditions related to €67.5 billion are met. The fifth report, expected to be completed by mid-February, is to focus on the government's reluctance to sell off many state-owned assets and initiating deep financial sector reforms promised in prior agreements. The IMF inspectors will meet with government ministers, Central Bank, NTMA and various think tanks.

***Looking Ahead***
- (CN) US Tsy Sec Geithner continues Far East visits (China, Japan)
- (PL) Poland Central Bank Interest rate Decision: Expected to leave the Base Rate unchanged at 4.50%
- (HU) Hungary Govt officials in Washington DC meeting with IMF
- 6:00 (FR) France President Sarkozy meets IMF chief Lagarde in Paris
- 6:00 (PT) Portugal Nov Construction Works Index: No est v 65.2 prior
- 7:00 (UK) Prime Minister's question time in House of Commons
- 7:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel hosts Italian PM Monti for talks in Berlin
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 6th: No est v -4.1% prior
- 8:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Minutes
- 8:40 (US) Fed's Evans speaks on U.S. economy in Illinois
- 9:00 (US) Fed's Lockhart to speak on economy in Atlanta
- 9:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Industrial Production M/M: +0.6%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.6%e v 3.3% prior
- 9:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Final Trade Balance: No est v -$232M prelim
- 9:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.7B in 2022-2036 Gilts in reverse auction
- 10:00 (EU) Major European institutes (INSEE, IFO, ISAE) publish Q1 Economic forecasts
- 10:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Vehicle Production: no est v 231.1K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 83.1K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 199.1K prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Energy Inventories
- 11:20 (DK) EU Commission's Barroso meets Danish Premier Thorning-Schmidt
- 12:00 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy speaks at Manager Conference in Brussels
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks on economy in Rochester, NY
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $21B in 10-Year Notes Reopening
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Beige Book
- 20:30 (CN) China Dec Producer Price Index Y/Y: 1.6%e v 2.7% prior
- 20:30 (CN) China Dec Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 4.0%e v 4.2% prior

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