06.01.2012 13:19 Friday ***Economic Data***- (CO) COLOMBIA DEC CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 3.7% V 3.6%E
***Markets Snapshot (as of 04:30GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -0.9%
- S&P/ASX -0.7%
- Kospi -1.6%
- Taiwan Taiex -0.1%
- Singapore Straits Times -0.2%
- Shanghai Composite -0.3%
- Hang Seng -1.4%
- S&P Futures -0.4% at 1,268
- Feb Gold +0.3% at $1,625/oz
- March Crude -0.2% at $101.65
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Markets were mostly subdued through the session, seemingly not concerned ahead of the US non-farm payrolls and more concerned over the future of Europe. EUR/USD extended its decline below $1.2765, fresh 15-month lows. Gold has resumed its safe haven status testing $1,628, a 2-week high. Near the end of the Asia session a report came across that there was an incident at a North Korea nuclear facility, details were very limited. KRW fell to session lows testing KRW1,155, the yen gained 0.3% against the won and Kospi fell 2% below 1,825. About 30 minutes later officials from Japan and South Korea said they had not heard of any incidents in North Korea.
- China's major oil companies, Sinopec, CNOOC and PetroChina had a boost after China Ministry of Finance raised the threshold on which mainland oil companies will have to pay a windfall tax to $55/barrel from $40. It is expected that this new measure may offset the extra cost brought on by the resource tax in Oct. The govt also took measures to support the banking sector announcing that the CBRC will delay higher capital requirements for big banks until July 1st v Jan 1st prior. The CBRC is calling for capital adequacy ratio of 11.5% and a core ratio of 9.5% v the current capital adequacy ratio requirement of 5-8% depending on the bank.
- Samsung Electronics reported their preliminary Q4 guiding operating profit at KRW5.2T, beating expectations and prior quarter. Sees Rev at KRW47.0T much higher than Q3 and also beating expectations. Both Singapore Air and Qantas confirmed that they had found small cracks in the A30 wing ribs, both said that they did not present a flight risk and they would repair the planes.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Azumi: EU needs to make efforts to win investors' trust; Would like to see the EU establish a firewall
- (CN) New deposits at China's top 4 banks in December saw an increase of CNY1.25T; New loans were about CNY210B - Chinese press
- (JP) Japan PM Noda: Cabinet will endorse sales tax increase plan
- (EU) ECB's Knot: Crisis of confidence unfolding in Europe; EU aid fund is not large enough, largest hurdle for increasing the EFSF is Germany - Dutch media
- (CN) China Housing Min Weixin: To set up a housing database to track prices and homeownership for 40 cities
***Equities***
- Samsung Electronics, 005930.KR: Reports Prelim Q4 Op profit KRW5.2T (record high) v KRW4.7Te (KRW4.25T q/q) ; Rev KRW47.0T v KRW46.2Te (KRW41.3T q/q)
- Lenovo Group, 992.HK: Preparing a global restructuring plan by reorganizing geographical business units - US financial press
- ASX.AU: Reports Dec capital raised A$9.0B, -45% y/y; 2011 capital raised A$48.6B, -11% y/y
- SNP: Reports 2011 crude output +0.4% y/y; Natural gas output +16.8% y/y
- TM: Targeting to sell more than 1M cars in China in 2012, +10% y/y (+4% y/y in 2011) - Chinese press
- Guangzhou Automobile, 2238.HK: May only make 80-90% of forecasted profit in 2011 - filing
- APOL: Reports Q1 $1.28 (adj) v $1.18e, R$1.18B v $1.2Be; +2.0% afterhours
- AA: TO CLOSE OR CURTAIL 531K METRIC TONS OF SMELTING CAPACITY (12% of total capacity); sees charges of $0.15-0.16 in Q4; -1.7% afterhours
- FDO: Reports Q1 $0.68 v $0.68e, R$2.15B v $2.2Be; -2.9% afterhours
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- (IN) India Dec tea production 90.3M kilos v 93.9M kilos prior
- (AR) Argentina Agriculture Min Solis: Will eliminate export quotas for wheat, will sell under a new system; Likely to do the same for corn but no decision has been made
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 9,547.0 tons from 9,605.8 tons (lowest level since 9,500 on July, 2011)
Showing posts with label Ahead. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ahead. Show all posts
Friday
Thursday
Asian Market Update: Markets cautious ahead of meeting between Germany and France; China 2011 yuan loans fail to top 2010
09.01.2012 08:47 Monday ***Economic Data***- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.0% V 0.4%E (5-month low)
- (CN) CHINA DEC NEW YUAN LOANS (CNY): 640.5B V 575BE (8-month high); 2011 NEW LOANS CNY7.47T V CNY7.95T IN 2010
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV TRADE BALANCE (NZ$): -308M V -300ME (4th consecutive deficit)
- (CN) CHINA DEC M2 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 13.6% V 12.9%E (5-month high); M1 Y/Y: 7.9% V 7.8% PRIOR
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA DEC PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Y/Y: 4.3% V 5.1% PRIOR (15-month low)
- (UK) UK DEC LLOYDS EMPLOYMENT CONFIDENCE: -75 V -75 PRIOR (matches multi-month-low)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: 6.8% V 2.8% PRIOR (21-month high)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC AIG PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX: 41.0 V 39.6 PRIOR (10-month high; 19th consecutive month of contraction)
***Markets Snapshot (as of 04:30GMT)***
- Nikkei225 closed
- S&P/ASX unchanged
- Kospi -1.2%
- Taiwan Taiex -0.7%
- Singapore Straits Times -0.9%
- Shanghai Composite +1.4%
- Hang Seng -0.9%
- S&P Futures -0.4% at 1,269
- Feb Gold -0.5% at $1,609/oz
- March Crude -0.5% at $101.02
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Markets were very cautious today, after several opened slightly to the upside they quickly fell into negative territory despite stronger US economic data on Friday. Europe's debt crisis continues to weigh on the markets ahead of today's meeting of German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy. There are several sovereign bond auctions this week in Europe starting with Greece on Monday and Germany on Tuesday, Spain will sell debt maturing in 2015 and 2016 on Thursday, while Italy will auction three-, five- and 15-year bills on Friday.
- The situation in Iran continues to drive Brent prices higher, testing $113.30 as the UK announced it was sending its newest warship to the Gulf in response to Iranian threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. Iran announced that it had replaced the USD with the Russian ruble for some of its oil transactions with Moscow. SocGen analysts look at situation in Iran: Would be relatively easy for Iran to shut down the Straits of Hormuz; but would need to be able to keep it closed for a long period of time to inflict any economic impact on Western countries relying on the oil. "In the event of a shutdown of the Straits of Hormuz, disrupting 15 Mb/d of crude flows, we would expect Brent prices to spike into the $150-200 range for a limited time period. The disruption would definitely result in an IEA strategic release."
- Yen had strong early gains, testing below ¥76.80 and EUR/JPY extended its decline to an 11 year low of ¥97.50. Japan was closed for a holiday and no comments came from officials or the central bank. EUR/USD fell to a 16-month low below $1.2690. A$ lost over 0.5% against the USD after retail sales came in at a 5-month low with a flat reading m/m.
- China reported December new yuan loans of CNY640.5B, this was an 8-month high after the PBoC loosened lending requirements amid slowing economic growth towards the end of the year. However, 2011 new yuan loans were still below 2010 levels. According to analysts, 2012 new yuan loans will rise about 14% from CNY7.47T in 2011. PBoC Gov Zhou said that China may widen Yuan trading band when capital flows become more balanced; Not a good time to liberalize interest rates now. Reiterated will continue implementation of "prudent" monetary policy with some fine-tuning in 2012.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (CN) Shanghai new home sales -42% w/w; New home prices -17.03% w/w - Uwin
- According to global central bank governors, banks in EU, Japan, and US to be subject to tests for compliance with Basel standards starting in early 2012 0 financial press
- (CN) PBoC to implement a deposit security system, requiring financial institutions to contribute to a fund that would protect customers in case of a bank became insolvent - Chinese press
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) may raise reserve requirement ratio - Korean press
- (HK) According to Centaline Property Agency the secondary market over the weekend saw only 5 home sell v 11 last weekend; Primary market sales remain "brisk" - HK Standard
***Equities***
- SNP: Targeting to double oil output to 50M tons by 2015 v 22.9M tons in 2011 - Chinese press
- BYD, 1211.HK: China Finance Ministry to suspend sales tax on electric vehicles made by domestic automakers BYD and SAIC Motor - China Daily
- Hyundai Motor, 005380.KR: Production suspended at engine factory in South Korea's city of Ulsan after employee set himself on fire in protest of anti-union activity - financial press
- AVM.AU: Minmetals Resources' A$1.2B takeover bid for Anvil will expire on Wednesday, with no acceptance from shareholders expect the largest one Trafigura - Australia Financial Review
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
Supplies of arabica beans are limited due to rain in Colombia and Central America damaging crops; Brazil harvest is months away from being ready - financial press
- (CN) CHINA DEC NEW YUAN LOANS (CNY): 640.5B V 575BE (8-month high); 2011 NEW LOANS CNY7.47T V CNY7.95T IN 2010
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV TRADE BALANCE (NZ$): -308M V -300ME (4th consecutive deficit)
- (CN) CHINA DEC M2 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 13.6% V 12.9%E (5-month high); M1 Y/Y: 7.9% V 7.8% PRIOR
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA DEC PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Y/Y: 4.3% V 5.1% PRIOR (15-month low)
- (UK) UK DEC LLOYDS EMPLOYMENT CONFIDENCE: -75 V -75 PRIOR (matches multi-month-low)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: 6.8% V 2.8% PRIOR (21-month high)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC AIG PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX: 41.0 V 39.6 PRIOR (10-month high; 19th consecutive month of contraction)
***Markets Snapshot (as of 04:30GMT)***
- Nikkei225 closed
- S&P/ASX unchanged
- Kospi -1.2%
- Taiwan Taiex -0.7%
- Singapore Straits Times -0.9%
- Shanghai Composite +1.4%
- Hang Seng -0.9%
- S&P Futures -0.4% at 1,269
- Feb Gold -0.5% at $1,609/oz
- March Crude -0.5% at $101.02
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Markets were very cautious today, after several opened slightly to the upside they quickly fell into negative territory despite stronger US economic data on Friday. Europe's debt crisis continues to weigh on the markets ahead of today's meeting of German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy. There are several sovereign bond auctions this week in Europe starting with Greece on Monday and Germany on Tuesday, Spain will sell debt maturing in 2015 and 2016 on Thursday, while Italy will auction three-, five- and 15-year bills on Friday.
- The situation in Iran continues to drive Brent prices higher, testing $113.30 as the UK announced it was sending its newest warship to the Gulf in response to Iranian threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. Iran announced that it had replaced the USD with the Russian ruble for some of its oil transactions with Moscow. SocGen analysts look at situation in Iran: Would be relatively easy for Iran to shut down the Straits of Hormuz; but would need to be able to keep it closed for a long period of time to inflict any economic impact on Western countries relying on the oil. "In the event of a shutdown of the Straits of Hormuz, disrupting 15 Mb/d of crude flows, we would expect Brent prices to spike into the $150-200 range for a limited time period. The disruption would definitely result in an IEA strategic release."
- Yen had strong early gains, testing below ¥76.80 and EUR/JPY extended its decline to an 11 year low of ¥97.50. Japan was closed for a holiday and no comments came from officials or the central bank. EUR/USD fell to a 16-month low below $1.2690. A$ lost over 0.5% against the USD after retail sales came in at a 5-month low with a flat reading m/m.
- China reported December new yuan loans of CNY640.5B, this was an 8-month high after the PBoC loosened lending requirements amid slowing economic growth towards the end of the year. However, 2011 new yuan loans were still below 2010 levels. According to analysts, 2012 new yuan loans will rise about 14% from CNY7.47T in 2011. PBoC Gov Zhou said that China may widen Yuan trading band when capital flows become more balanced; Not a good time to liberalize interest rates now. Reiterated will continue implementation of "prudent" monetary policy with some fine-tuning in 2012.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (CN) Shanghai new home sales -42% w/w; New home prices -17.03% w/w - Uwin
- According to global central bank governors, banks in EU, Japan, and US to be subject to tests for compliance with Basel standards starting in early 2012 0 financial press
- (CN) PBoC to implement a deposit security system, requiring financial institutions to contribute to a fund that would protect customers in case of a bank became insolvent - Chinese press
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) may raise reserve requirement ratio - Korean press
- (HK) According to Centaline Property Agency the secondary market over the weekend saw only 5 home sell v 11 last weekend; Primary market sales remain "brisk" - HK Standard
***Equities***
- SNP: Targeting to double oil output to 50M tons by 2015 v 22.9M tons in 2011 - Chinese press
- BYD, 1211.HK: China Finance Ministry to suspend sales tax on electric vehicles made by domestic automakers BYD and SAIC Motor - China Daily
- Hyundai Motor, 005380.KR: Production suspended at engine factory in South Korea's city of Ulsan after employee set himself on fire in protest of anti-union activity - financial press
- AVM.AU: Minmetals Resources' A$1.2B takeover bid for Anvil will expire on Wednesday, with no acceptance from shareholders expect the largest one Trafigura - Australia Financial Review
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
Supplies of arabica beans are limited due to rain in Colombia and Central America damaging crops; Brazil harvest is months away from being ready - financial press
Wednesday
European Market Update: Euro currency consolidates its recent losses ahead of Merkel-Sarkozy meeting later today
***Economic Data***- (EU) ECB: €1.4B borrowed in overnight loan facility v €1.9B prior; parked in deposit facility (fresh record high) vs. €455.3B prior
- (IT) ECB Dec funding to Italian banks m/m: €210B v €153B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Dec Net Reserves: $47.9Bv $48.6B prior; Gross Reserves: $48.9B v $48.8Be
- (CH) Swiss Dec Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3.2%e v 3.1% prior; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 3.1 v 3.1%e
- (DE) Germany Nov Current Account: €14.3B v €11.0Be; Trade Balance: €16.2B v €12.0Be; Exports M/M:+2.5% v +0.5%e; Imports M/M: -0.4% v +0.5%e
- (FR) France Nov Trade Balance: -€4.4B v -€6.0Be
- (CZ) Czech Dec CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2,4% v 2.5%e
- (CZ) Czech Dec Unemployment Rate: 8.6% v 8.5%e
- (CZ) Czech Nov Retail Sales Y/Y: +0.5% v -1.0%e
- (DK) Denmark Nov Current Account (DKK): 12.6B v 9.1Be; Trade Balance (ex-shipping): 7.1B v 7.0Be
- (HU) Hungary Nov Preliminary Trade Balance: €666.0M v €790.0Me
- (TU) Turkey Nov Industrial Production WDA M/M: -2.5% v +4.2% prior; Y/Y: 7.2% v 7.4% prior; Industrial Production NSA Y/Y: 8.4% v 10.0%e
- (TW) Taiwan Dec Total Trade Balance: 2.3B v $2.7Be; Total Exports Y/Y: 0.6 v 3.7%e; Total Imports Y/Y: -2.7 v -1.0%e
- (CH) Swiss Nov Real Retail Sales Y/Y: +1.8% v +0.2%e
- (SE) Sweden Nov Service Production M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.3%e
- (NO) Norway Nov Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 6.6% v 6.8%e
- (SG) Singapore Dec Foreign Reserves: $237.7B v $241.0B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Sentix Investor Confidence: -21.2 v -24.0 prior
- (GR) Greece Nov Industrial Production Y/Y: -7.8% v -12.3% prior
- (BR) Brazil Dec FGV Inflation IGP-DI: % v -0.2%e v -0.2% prior
Fixed Income:
- (NO) Norway sold NOK6.0B vs. NOK6.0B indicated in 6.5% 2013 Bonds; Yield 1.390%
- (SO) Slovakia Debt Agency (ARDAL) sold €237.1M in 3-month Bills, Avg Yield 1.4313% v 1.8010 prior; bid-to-cover: 2.04x vs. 2.09x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF40B vs. HUF40B targeted in 6-Week Bills; Avg Yield 7.77% v 7.34% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.71x
- (DE) Germany sold €3.9B in 6-month Bubills; avg yield -0.122% v +0.0005% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 3.8x prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- Moody's: Spain Fiscal Slippage In 2011 Is Credit Negative
- Germany Chancellor Merkel to meet French President Sarkozy later today and then INF chief Lagarde on Tuesday
Equities:
FTSE 100 flat at 5648, DAX -0.30% at 6041, CAC-40 +0.10% at 3141, IBEX 35 +0.90% at 8365, FTSE MIB flat at 14,652, SMI -0.10% at 6007
- European shares edged higher ahead of the Merkozy meeting today in Berlin. The two leaders are expected to discuss the future of the Eurozone and markets are up with optimism that the leaders will pave the way to a solution and prepare for next summit of January 30th.
- Individual shares traded mixed during the session. Unicredit [UCG.IT] fell in the red before the shares were halted and resumed trading again, lower by 7% as investors are monitoring and trading bank's capital increase. Glaxosmithkline [GSK.UK] also traded lower after reporting mixed clinical results for its Relovair asthma drug. BMW [BMW.DE] rose after reporting record high vehicle sales for 2011.
Speakers:
- IMF Chief Lagarde commented that Europe might avoid recession in 2012 as she saw reasons to be more upbeat about the region's prospects
- China Vice Commerce Minister Zhong Shan reiterated that China faced a more difficult trading environment in 2012 but would maintain trade policies. China would implement targeted measures to maintain trade with the US and Japan, while expanding the share of exports to emerging markets
- China Xinhua commentary piece stated that the European common currency would not collapse despite the current situation
- German Fin Min Schauble urged faster progress was needed for Greece in its negotiations with the IMF
- Czech Central Bank Gov Singer commented that Greece should quit the euro-zone and devalue its new currency unless Europe was willing to give "massive" funding to the country
- Italy PM Monti reiterated that there would be no new austerity plan, that the measures already announced were enough
to guarantee the country will reach its economic targets
- Investor George Soros commented that Europe was in a more serious situation at this time compare to the 2008 crisis
- Spain's Budget Min was said to be planning to meet with regional governments this week regarding the deficits of the regions.
- Swiss Government Official commented that Switzerland Unemployment Rate would rise to 3.9% by end of 2012 compared to the 3.3% rate registered in December
- EU Steel Industry Association (EUROFER) was said to have filed anti-subsidy complaint regarding Chinese steel products
- EU Commission commented that Hungary needed to recover HUF64B in illegal state aid paid to Malev Airlines for the 2007-10 period
- UAE Oil Min commented that oil prices between $85-95 was good for country's investments and noted that the IPIC pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz seen operational within six months with capacity between 1.5-1.8M bpd
- Philippines Central Bank Gov Tetangco commented that he saw monetary easing in Q1 2012 period (Move would follow two hikes in 2011). The governor was confident of manageable inflation in the coming months and would continue to monitor negative developments overseas and its possible impact on domestic prices
- EU plans to sell bonds through the EFSM; guidance seen 130-140bps over mid-swaps
Currencies:
- Bearish sentiment for the Euro seemed a bit overdone ahead of the key Merkel-Sarkozy meeting later today. The most recent CFTC data showed that euro short positions hit record highs as the EUR/USD hit 16 month lows while EUR/JPY was at 12-year lows. The session saw a mild reprieve for the Euro. The pair tested 1.2785 as the NY morning approached
- Overall the USD was a touch weaker against the major pairs in a move regarded as consolidation following the gains after the US payroll data release last week.
Political/ In the Papers:
- According to a survey of 14 bank economists, Germany is already in recession. There are expectations the economy contracted in the fourth quarter, and that the pace of the contraction may speed up in the first quarter. Germany is due to issue 2011 GDP data on Wednesday.
- Data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) indicated that fourth quarter business volumes in the UK financial sector grew at its fastest pace since 2007. The industry was supported by higher equity prices and bond market transactions. CBI added that it has concerns about the 2012 outlook for financial services due to the EU debt crisis.
- Britain's PM Cameron was said to have moved away from plans to remove the 50% income tax rate until at least 2015. The Telegraph noted that the decision to cancel the planned elimination of the tax rate comes amid political hurdles and rising tax revenues attributed to the tax rate. UK Chancellor Osborne is expected to disclose in the March Budget that a decision to maintain the top tax rate until 2015 remains under review.
- The Irish Independent reported that Ireland Q4 house prices are down 8%, and down 18% for the 2011. According to Daft.ie, for 2011 prices dropped 18%. House prices are down over 50% from the boom of 2007, with suggestion that an additional 15-20% fall may be possible based on the theory that a home is worth 15 times what somebody would pay for it in rent over a year.
- German Social Democrats have indicated that they will work with Chancellor Angela Merkel to find a consensus candidate for the German presidency. As a reminder, President Wulff is facing calls to resign for allegedly taking a low-interest loan arranged by the wife of a businessman during his tenure as minister president in the state of Lower Saxony.
- Greek bondholders were reported to be prepared to accept higher losses, as negotiations are to continue this week.
***Looking Ahead***
- (EU) EU to price 30-year bonds (guidance was around 130bps over mid-swaps)
- 6:00 (FR) France PM Fillon makes New Year's vows in Paris
- 6:00 (DE) Germany Nov Industrial Production M/M: -0.5%e v +0.8% prior; Y/Y: 4.0%e v 4.1% prior
- 6:00 (PT) Portugal Nov Trade Balance: No est -€932M prior
- 6:00 (ZA) South Africa Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v -0.8% prior; Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v -1.4% prior
- 6:00 (IS) Israel to sell 2014, 2016, 2022 and 2042 Bonds
- 6:00 (PL) Poland to sell up to PLN2.0B in 12-month Bills
- 6:30 (CL) Chile Dec Trade Balance: $750.0Me v $657.0M prior;
- 6:30 (CL) Chile Dec Copper Exports: No est v $3.7B prior
- 7:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel and France President Sarkozy hold Talks in Berlin
- 7:45 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Nov Building Permits M/M: -3.0%e v +11.9% prior
- 9:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Consumer Prices M/M: No est v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.5% prior; CPI Core M/M: No est v 0.3% prior
- 9:00 (FR) France Debt Agency to sell up to €7.7B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 9:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 9:30 (EU) ECB announces weekly settlements in its Govt Bond Buying Program (SMP)
- 9:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.7B in 2015-2020 Gilts in reverse auction
- 10:00 (HU) Hungary Dec YTD Budget Balance (HUF): No est v -1.248T
- 10:30 (CA) Canada Q4 Business Outlook Future Sales: 10.0e v 6.0 prior; BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey: No est v -26.9 prior
- 10:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Speech on demographics at Cologne Congress
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 3-Month and $27B in 6-Month Bills
- 12:00 (EU) EU Parliament's Buzek speaks at Press Club Brussels
- 12:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel attends IHK Chamber of Commerce Event in Dusseldorf
- 12:40 (US) Fed's Lockhart to speak on economy in Atlanta
- 15:00 (US) Nov Consumer Credit: $7.0Be v $7.7B prior
- (IT) ECB Dec funding to Italian banks m/m: €210B v €153B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Dec Net Reserves: $47.9Bv $48.6B prior; Gross Reserves: $48.9B v $48.8Be
- (CH) Swiss Dec Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3.2%e v 3.1% prior; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 3.1 v 3.1%e
- (DE) Germany Nov Current Account: €14.3B v €11.0Be; Trade Balance: €16.2B v €12.0Be; Exports M/M:+2.5% v +0.5%e; Imports M/M: -0.4% v +0.5%e
- (FR) France Nov Trade Balance: -€4.4B v -€6.0Be
- (CZ) Czech Dec CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2,4% v 2.5%e
- (CZ) Czech Dec Unemployment Rate: 8.6% v 8.5%e
- (CZ) Czech Nov Retail Sales Y/Y: +0.5% v -1.0%e
- (DK) Denmark Nov Current Account (DKK): 12.6B v 9.1Be; Trade Balance (ex-shipping): 7.1B v 7.0Be
- (HU) Hungary Nov Preliminary Trade Balance: €666.0M v €790.0Me
- (TU) Turkey Nov Industrial Production WDA M/M: -2.5% v +4.2% prior; Y/Y: 7.2% v 7.4% prior; Industrial Production NSA Y/Y: 8.4% v 10.0%e
- (TW) Taiwan Dec Total Trade Balance: 2.3B v $2.7Be; Total Exports Y/Y: 0.6 v 3.7%e; Total Imports Y/Y: -2.7 v -1.0%e
- (CH) Swiss Nov Real Retail Sales Y/Y: +1.8% v +0.2%e
- (SE) Sweden Nov Service Production M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.3%e
- (NO) Norway Nov Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 6.6% v 6.8%e
- (SG) Singapore Dec Foreign Reserves: $237.7B v $241.0B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Sentix Investor Confidence: -21.2 v -24.0 prior
- (GR) Greece Nov Industrial Production Y/Y: -7.8% v -12.3% prior
- (BR) Brazil Dec FGV Inflation IGP-DI: % v -0.2%e v -0.2% prior
Fixed Income:
- (NO) Norway sold NOK6.0B vs. NOK6.0B indicated in 6.5% 2013 Bonds; Yield 1.390%
- (SO) Slovakia Debt Agency (ARDAL) sold €237.1M in 3-month Bills, Avg Yield 1.4313% v 1.8010 prior; bid-to-cover: 2.04x vs. 2.09x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF40B vs. HUF40B targeted in 6-Week Bills; Avg Yield 7.77% v 7.34% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.71x
- (DE) Germany sold €3.9B in 6-month Bubills; avg yield -0.122% v +0.0005% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 3.8x prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- Moody's: Spain Fiscal Slippage In 2011 Is Credit Negative
- Germany Chancellor Merkel to meet French President Sarkozy later today and then INF chief Lagarde on Tuesday
Equities:
FTSE 100 flat at 5648, DAX -0.30% at 6041, CAC-40 +0.10% at 3141, IBEX 35 +0.90% at 8365, FTSE MIB flat at 14,652, SMI -0.10% at 6007
- European shares edged higher ahead of the Merkozy meeting today in Berlin. The two leaders are expected to discuss the future of the Eurozone and markets are up with optimism that the leaders will pave the way to a solution and prepare for next summit of January 30th.
- Individual shares traded mixed during the session. Unicredit [UCG.IT] fell in the red before the shares were halted and resumed trading again, lower by 7% as investors are monitoring and trading bank's capital increase. Glaxosmithkline [GSK.UK] also traded lower after reporting mixed clinical results for its Relovair asthma drug. BMW [BMW.DE] rose after reporting record high vehicle sales for 2011.
Speakers:
- IMF Chief Lagarde commented that Europe might avoid recession in 2012 as she saw reasons to be more upbeat about the region's prospects
- China Vice Commerce Minister Zhong Shan reiterated that China faced a more difficult trading environment in 2012 but would maintain trade policies. China would implement targeted measures to maintain trade with the US and Japan, while expanding the share of exports to emerging markets
- China Xinhua commentary piece stated that the European common currency would not collapse despite the current situation
- German Fin Min Schauble urged faster progress was needed for Greece in its negotiations with the IMF
- Czech Central Bank Gov Singer commented that Greece should quit the euro-zone and devalue its new currency unless Europe was willing to give "massive" funding to the country
- Italy PM Monti reiterated that there would be no new austerity plan, that the measures already announced were enough
to guarantee the country will reach its economic targets
- Investor George Soros commented that Europe was in a more serious situation at this time compare to the 2008 crisis
- Spain's Budget Min was said to be planning to meet with regional governments this week regarding the deficits of the regions.
- Swiss Government Official commented that Switzerland Unemployment Rate would rise to 3.9% by end of 2012 compared to the 3.3% rate registered in December
- EU Steel Industry Association (EUROFER) was said to have filed anti-subsidy complaint regarding Chinese steel products
- EU Commission commented that Hungary needed to recover HUF64B in illegal state aid paid to Malev Airlines for the 2007-10 period
- UAE Oil Min commented that oil prices between $85-95 was good for country's investments and noted that the IPIC pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz seen operational within six months with capacity between 1.5-1.8M bpd
- Philippines Central Bank Gov Tetangco commented that he saw monetary easing in Q1 2012 period (Move would follow two hikes in 2011). The governor was confident of manageable inflation in the coming months and would continue to monitor negative developments overseas and its possible impact on domestic prices
- EU plans to sell bonds through the EFSM; guidance seen 130-140bps over mid-swaps
Currencies:
- Bearish sentiment for the Euro seemed a bit overdone ahead of the key Merkel-Sarkozy meeting later today. The most recent CFTC data showed that euro short positions hit record highs as the EUR/USD hit 16 month lows while EUR/JPY was at 12-year lows. The session saw a mild reprieve for the Euro. The pair tested 1.2785 as the NY morning approached
- Overall the USD was a touch weaker against the major pairs in a move regarded as consolidation following the gains after the US payroll data release last week.
Political/ In the Papers:
- According to a survey of 14 bank economists, Germany is already in recession. There are expectations the economy contracted in the fourth quarter, and that the pace of the contraction may speed up in the first quarter. Germany is due to issue 2011 GDP data on Wednesday.
- Data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) indicated that fourth quarter business volumes in the UK financial sector grew at its fastest pace since 2007. The industry was supported by higher equity prices and bond market transactions. CBI added that it has concerns about the 2012 outlook for financial services due to the EU debt crisis.
- Britain's PM Cameron was said to have moved away from plans to remove the 50% income tax rate until at least 2015. The Telegraph noted that the decision to cancel the planned elimination of the tax rate comes amid political hurdles and rising tax revenues attributed to the tax rate. UK Chancellor Osborne is expected to disclose in the March Budget that a decision to maintain the top tax rate until 2015 remains under review.
- The Irish Independent reported that Ireland Q4 house prices are down 8%, and down 18% for the 2011. According to Daft.ie, for 2011 prices dropped 18%. House prices are down over 50% from the boom of 2007, with suggestion that an additional 15-20% fall may be possible based on the theory that a home is worth 15 times what somebody would pay for it in rent over a year.
- German Social Democrats have indicated that they will work with Chancellor Angela Merkel to find a consensus candidate for the German presidency. As a reminder, President Wulff is facing calls to resign for allegedly taking a low-interest loan arranged by the wife of a businessman during his tenure as minister president in the state of Lower Saxony.
- Greek bondholders were reported to be prepared to accept higher losses, as negotiations are to continue this week.
***Looking Ahead***
- (EU) EU to price 30-year bonds (guidance was around 130bps over mid-swaps)
- 6:00 (FR) France PM Fillon makes New Year's vows in Paris
- 6:00 (DE) Germany Nov Industrial Production M/M: -0.5%e v +0.8% prior; Y/Y: 4.0%e v 4.1% prior
- 6:00 (PT) Portugal Nov Trade Balance: No est -€932M prior
- 6:00 (ZA) South Africa Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v -0.8% prior; Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v -1.4% prior
- 6:00 (IS) Israel to sell 2014, 2016, 2022 and 2042 Bonds
- 6:00 (PL) Poland to sell up to PLN2.0B in 12-month Bills
- 6:30 (CL) Chile Dec Trade Balance: $750.0Me v $657.0M prior;
- 6:30 (CL) Chile Dec Copper Exports: No est v $3.7B prior
- 7:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel and France President Sarkozy hold Talks in Berlin
- 7:45 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Nov Building Permits M/M: -3.0%e v +11.9% prior
- 9:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Consumer Prices M/M: No est v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.5% prior; CPI Core M/M: No est v 0.3% prior
- 9:00 (FR) France Debt Agency to sell up to €7.7B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 9:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 9:30 (EU) ECB announces weekly settlements in its Govt Bond Buying Program (SMP)
- 9:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.7B in 2015-2020 Gilts in reverse auction
- 10:00 (HU) Hungary Dec YTD Budget Balance (HUF): No est v -1.248T
- 10:30 (CA) Canada Q4 Business Outlook Future Sales: 10.0e v 6.0 prior; BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey: No est v -26.9 prior
- 10:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Speech on demographics at Cologne Congress
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 3-Month and $27B in 6-Month Bills
- 12:00 (EU) EU Parliament's Buzek speaks at Press Club Brussels
- 12:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel attends IHK Chamber of Commerce Event in Dusseldorf
- 12:40 (US) Fed's Lockhart to speak on economy in Atlanta
- 15:00 (US) Nov Consumer Credit: $7.0Be v $7.7B prior
Tuesday
Asian Market Update: Quiet session ahead of Bund auction; China assures its banks are well positioned
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Welcome, today is Wednesday, 11 Jan 2012, 16:17 Times around the world » New York (USA) 10:17:57 -6h 
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European Market Update: Germany moving closer to a technical recessionKBC: While Hungary’s delegation meets the IMF, the government is ready to change legislationDAILY FOREX AND DOW JONES RECOMMENDED LEVELSUS Market Update: Dow +98 S&P +13 NASDAQ +29European Market Update: Fitch noted that France seen holding onto AAA rating for this year aids risk appetite; Euro nations sovereign review likely to be resolved by end of JanuaryKBC: Hungary’s budget deficit probably below 3% of GDP in 2011DAILY FOREX AND DOW JONES RECOMMENDED LEVELS Najpopularniejsze World-Signals.com: Negative US fundamental data moved EUR/USD with 80 pips.Forex linksEnergy Market PreviewForex hedge fund managementKBC: Higher US PPI extends negative correction in the regionFXCM: Yen Recovers; Euro Marks TimeKBC: CE currencies weaken on global equity sell offNasdaq (qqqq), still working to perfection.... Navigator FXtraders.eu » Article Articles menu Print Print directly Print preview Add to bookmarks Tell a friend Adjust font Enlarge Decrease Article content 11.01.2012 08:40 Wednesday ***Economic Data***- (JP) JAPAN DEC OFFICIAL RESERVE ASSETS: $1.3T V $1.3T PRIOR
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA DEC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.1% V 3.2%E
- (JP) JAPAN NOV PRELIMINARY LEADING INDEX CI: 92.9 V 92.9E; COINCIDENT INDEX CI: 90.3 V 90.3E
- (MA) MALAYSIA NOV TRADE BALANCE (MYR): 9.5B V 11.9BE; Exports y/y: 8.0% v 12.9%e, Imports y/y: 8.4% v 9.4%e
- (JP) JAPAN NOV CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX: -0.2% V +1.2% PRIOR
- (UK) UK DEC BRC SHOP PRICE INDEX Y/Y: 1.7% V 2.0% PRIOR (16-month low)
- (LK) SRI LANKA CENTRAL BANK LEAVES REPURCHASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 7.00%, AS EXPECTED
- (AU) Australia Nov-end Job Vacancies: -3.3% v 3.2% prior
- (NZ) New Zealand Q4 Westpac Employment Confidence Index: 99.6 v 104.2 prior
- (CN) China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE): Lowers Q3 Current Account surplus to $53.4B vs $57.8B prior
***Markets Snapshot (as of 05:00GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.2%
- S&P/ASX +0.8%
- Kospi -0.4%
- Taiwan Taiex +0.3%
- Singapore Straits Times +0.3%
- Shanghai Composite -0.5%
- Hang Seng +0.1%
- S&P Futures -0.2% at 1,283
- Feb Gold +0.4% at $1,637/oz
- March Crude -0.4% at $101.84
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Markets were mixed, with no major driver for the session. Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney won the New Hampshire primary, as expected. Australia job vacancies declined 3.3% after rising nearly the same in the last month. South Korea saw its December unemployment rate hold steady. Commenting ahead of his first meeting in China, US Treasury Sec Geithner said that the main focus of the talks would be on growth, including growing US exports to China. China Vice Premier ahead of the talks indicated that China was willing to increase its trade with the US.
- EUR/USD traded with a bearish tone for the session ahead of the 5-year Bund auction later today and France's meeting with the IMF's Lagarde. USD/JPY was in a tight range for the session trading to the upside. AUD was weaker as many of the major miners were forced to close operations in Western Australia due to cyclone Heidi.
- PBoC Head of Research expects that the global financial crisis will last for another 2-3 years, saying that China banks may face challenges if rate policy is liberalized. PBoC's Zhang affirmed that Chinese banks are in good shape with low non-performing loan ratios; 2012 CPI may remain at 4%, may not decline quickly. PBoC Advisor Li commented to the press that any help for Europe should be linked to IMF quota reform. EU debt crisis will have a short term impact on China's economic because of steps taken to reduce reliance on external demand.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (AU) Australia Foreign Min Rudd: If Australia does not invest in Indonesia it runs the risk of missing a Brazil scale economic opportunity - The Australian
- (CN) China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) researcher Fan Mingtai: Local debt problem will not be solved in the next 2-3 years; Looser policy needed to ease pressure on local govts - China Daily
- (HK) Hong Kong banks increasingly concerned over borrowers' ability to make mortgage payments - SCMP
- (CN) China top 4 banks total yuan loans in the first week of Jan exceeded CNY50B v CNY130B estimated for entire Dec
- (CN) According to Goldman Sachs, PBoC may start to cut key 1-year rates starting in H2 of 2012 - financial press
***Equities***
- Kirin Holdings, 2503.JP: Reports 2011 beer sales 160.3M v 165.9M target, -5.7% y/y; Guides 2012 beer sales at 163.5M cases
- CHT: Reports Dec Net NT$2.2B, Rev NT$16.4B
- Hon Hai Precision, 2317.TW: Reports Dec Rev NT$316.9B, +3.2% m/m and 29.5% y/y
- BXB.AU: Received offer of A$2.2B for paper unit, Recall - financial press
- Shimao Property, 813.HK: Expects Beijing to lift some of the property purchase restrictions imposed in 2011 in mid-2012 - SCMP
***US Equities***
- SMCI: Cuts Q2 guidance $0.24-0.25 v $0.29e; Rev $249-250M v $272Me (previously guided EPS $0.27-0.32; Rev $260-280M on Oct 25th); -5.9% after hours
- DLA: Lowers FY12 guidance due to record high cotton prices; Guides Q2 -$1.62 to -$1.58 v $0.02e; Guides FY12 $0.50-0.60 v $2.05e, R$480-500M v $515Me (guided $2.00-2.15, R$500-520M prior); -22.4% after hours
- SYK: Reports prelim Q4 R$2.2B v $2.23Be; FY11 $3.72-3.74 v $3.73e; R$8.3B v $8.3Be; Guides initial FY12 EPS growing double digits over 2011 (implies at least $4.09 v $4.11e); +1% after hours
- CWTR: Guides Q4 -$0.24 to -$0.18 v -$0.17e (-$0.21 to -$0.13 prior guidance); -5.8% after hours
- CROX: Guides FY11 Rev to exceed $1B v $1.0Be; guides Q4 Rev to high end of prior $200-205M v $204Me; +5.6% after hours
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES CRUDE: +400K V +1ME; GASOLINE: +1.89M V +2ME; DISTILLATE: +850K V +2ME; UTILIZATION: 84.8% V 83.7% W/W
- (CN) China MoF sells 1-yr bills at 2.78% v 3.90% on Sept 13th
- PKX: According to Korea Iron and Steel Association (KOSA), exports of steel from South Korea in 2011 reached a record high at 28.5M tons, +9.3% y/y - Korean press
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