09.01.2012 08:47 Monday ***Economic Data***- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.0% V 0.4%E (5-month low)
- (CN) CHINA DEC NEW YUAN LOANS (CNY): 640.5B V 575BE (8-month high); 2011 NEW LOANS CNY7.47T V CNY7.95T IN 2010
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV TRADE BALANCE (NZ$): -308M V -300ME (4th consecutive deficit)
- (CN) CHINA DEC M2 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 13.6% V 12.9%E (5-month high); M1 Y/Y: 7.9% V 7.8% PRIOR
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA DEC PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Y/Y: 4.3% V 5.1% PRIOR (15-month low)
- (UK) UK DEC LLOYDS EMPLOYMENT CONFIDENCE: -75 V -75 PRIOR (matches multi-month-low)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: 6.8% V 2.8% PRIOR (21-month high)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC AIG PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX: 41.0 V 39.6 PRIOR (10-month high; 19th consecutive month of contraction)
***Markets Snapshot (as of 04:30GMT)***
- Nikkei225 closed
- S&P/ASX unchanged
- Kospi -1.2%
- Taiwan Taiex -0.7%
- Singapore Straits Times -0.9%
- Shanghai Composite +1.4%
- Hang Seng -0.9%
- S&P Futures -0.4% at 1,269
- Feb Gold -0.5% at $1,609/oz
- March Crude -0.5% at $101.02
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Markets were very cautious today, after several opened slightly to the upside they quickly fell into negative territory despite stronger US economic data on Friday. Europe's debt crisis continues to weigh on the markets ahead of today's meeting of German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy. There are several sovereign bond auctions this week in Europe starting with Greece on Monday and Germany on Tuesday, Spain will sell debt maturing in 2015 and 2016 on Thursday, while Italy will auction three-, five- and 15-year bills on Friday.
- The situation in Iran continues to drive Brent prices higher, testing $113.30 as the UK announced it was sending its newest warship to the Gulf in response to Iranian threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. Iran announced that it had replaced the USD with the Russian ruble for some of its oil transactions with Moscow. SocGen analysts look at situation in Iran: Would be relatively easy for Iran to shut down the Straits of Hormuz; but would need to be able to keep it closed for a long period of time to inflict any economic impact on Western countries relying on the oil. "In the event of a shutdown of the Straits of Hormuz, disrupting 15 Mb/d of crude flows, we would expect Brent prices to spike into the $150-200 range for a limited time period. The disruption would definitely result in an IEA strategic release."
- Yen had strong early gains, testing below ¥76.80 and EUR/JPY extended its decline to an 11 year low of ¥97.50. Japan was closed for a holiday and no comments came from officials or the central bank. EUR/USD fell to a 16-month low below $1.2690. A$ lost over 0.5% against the USD after retail sales came in at a 5-month low with a flat reading m/m.
- China reported December new yuan loans of CNY640.5B, this was an 8-month high after the PBoC loosened lending requirements amid slowing economic growth towards the end of the year. However, 2011 new yuan loans were still below 2010 levels. According to analysts, 2012 new yuan loans will rise about 14% from CNY7.47T in 2011. PBoC Gov Zhou said that China may widen Yuan trading band when capital flows become more balanced; Not a good time to liberalize interest rates now. Reiterated will continue implementation of "prudent" monetary policy with some fine-tuning in 2012.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (CN) Shanghai new home sales -42% w/w; New home prices -17.03% w/w - Uwin
- According to global central bank governors, banks in EU, Japan, and US to be subject to tests for compliance with Basel standards starting in early 2012 0 financial press
- (CN) PBoC to implement a deposit security system, requiring financial institutions to contribute to a fund that would protect customers in case of a bank became insolvent - Chinese press
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) may raise reserve requirement ratio - Korean press
- (HK) According to Centaline Property Agency the secondary market over the weekend saw only 5 home sell v 11 last weekend; Primary market sales remain "brisk" - HK Standard
***Equities***
- SNP: Targeting to double oil output to 50M tons by 2015 v 22.9M tons in 2011 - Chinese press
- BYD, 1211.HK: China Finance Ministry to suspend sales tax on electric vehicles made by domestic automakers BYD and SAIC Motor - China Daily
- Hyundai Motor, 005380.KR: Production suspended at engine factory in South Korea's city of Ulsan after employee set himself on fire in protest of anti-union activity - financial press
- AVM.AU: Minmetals Resources' A$1.2B takeover bid for Anvil will expire on Wednesday, with no acceptance from shareholders expect the largest one Trafigura - Australia Financial Review
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
Supplies of arabica beans are limited due to rain in Colombia and Central America damaging crops; Brazil harvest is months away from being ready - financial press
No comments:
Post a Comment