Showing posts with label China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label China. Show all posts
Thursday
European Market Update: Risk appetite finds footing aided by China GDP data and German ZEW survey
European shares recovered their losses taking cue from Asian trading even after China's data showed economic slowing. As expected, SP downgraded EFSF rating to AA+, an action which did not move markets. However, German ZEW data was the highest ......
Asian Market Update: Markets cautious ahead of meeting between Germany and France; China 2011 yuan loans fail to top 2010
09.01.2012 08:47 Monday ***Economic Data***- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.0% V 0.4%E (5-month low)
- (CN) CHINA DEC NEW YUAN LOANS (CNY): 640.5B V 575BE (8-month high); 2011 NEW LOANS CNY7.47T V CNY7.95T IN 2010
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV TRADE BALANCE (NZ$): -308M V -300ME (4th consecutive deficit)
- (CN) CHINA DEC M2 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 13.6% V 12.9%E (5-month high); M1 Y/Y: 7.9% V 7.8% PRIOR
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA DEC PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Y/Y: 4.3% V 5.1% PRIOR (15-month low)
- (UK) UK DEC LLOYDS EMPLOYMENT CONFIDENCE: -75 V -75 PRIOR (matches multi-month-low)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: 6.8% V 2.8% PRIOR (21-month high)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC AIG PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX: 41.0 V 39.6 PRIOR (10-month high; 19th consecutive month of contraction)
***Markets Snapshot (as of 04:30GMT)***
- Nikkei225 closed
- S&P/ASX unchanged
- Kospi -1.2%
- Taiwan Taiex -0.7%
- Singapore Straits Times -0.9%
- Shanghai Composite +1.4%
- Hang Seng -0.9%
- S&P Futures -0.4% at 1,269
- Feb Gold -0.5% at $1,609/oz
- March Crude -0.5% at $101.02
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Markets were very cautious today, after several opened slightly to the upside they quickly fell into negative territory despite stronger US economic data on Friday. Europe's debt crisis continues to weigh on the markets ahead of today's meeting of German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy. There are several sovereign bond auctions this week in Europe starting with Greece on Monday and Germany on Tuesday, Spain will sell debt maturing in 2015 and 2016 on Thursday, while Italy will auction three-, five- and 15-year bills on Friday.
- The situation in Iran continues to drive Brent prices higher, testing $113.30 as the UK announced it was sending its newest warship to the Gulf in response to Iranian threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. Iran announced that it had replaced the USD with the Russian ruble for some of its oil transactions with Moscow. SocGen analysts look at situation in Iran: Would be relatively easy for Iran to shut down the Straits of Hormuz; but would need to be able to keep it closed for a long period of time to inflict any economic impact on Western countries relying on the oil. "In the event of a shutdown of the Straits of Hormuz, disrupting 15 Mb/d of crude flows, we would expect Brent prices to spike into the $150-200 range for a limited time period. The disruption would definitely result in an IEA strategic release."
- Yen had strong early gains, testing below ¥76.80 and EUR/JPY extended its decline to an 11 year low of ¥97.50. Japan was closed for a holiday and no comments came from officials or the central bank. EUR/USD fell to a 16-month low below $1.2690. A$ lost over 0.5% against the USD after retail sales came in at a 5-month low with a flat reading m/m.
- China reported December new yuan loans of CNY640.5B, this was an 8-month high after the PBoC loosened lending requirements amid slowing economic growth towards the end of the year. However, 2011 new yuan loans were still below 2010 levels. According to analysts, 2012 new yuan loans will rise about 14% from CNY7.47T in 2011. PBoC Gov Zhou said that China may widen Yuan trading band when capital flows become more balanced; Not a good time to liberalize interest rates now. Reiterated will continue implementation of "prudent" monetary policy with some fine-tuning in 2012.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (CN) Shanghai new home sales -42% w/w; New home prices -17.03% w/w - Uwin
- According to global central bank governors, banks in EU, Japan, and US to be subject to tests for compliance with Basel standards starting in early 2012 0 financial press
- (CN) PBoC to implement a deposit security system, requiring financial institutions to contribute to a fund that would protect customers in case of a bank became insolvent - Chinese press
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) may raise reserve requirement ratio - Korean press
- (HK) According to Centaline Property Agency the secondary market over the weekend saw only 5 home sell v 11 last weekend; Primary market sales remain "brisk" - HK Standard
***Equities***
- SNP: Targeting to double oil output to 50M tons by 2015 v 22.9M tons in 2011 - Chinese press
- BYD, 1211.HK: China Finance Ministry to suspend sales tax on electric vehicles made by domestic automakers BYD and SAIC Motor - China Daily
- Hyundai Motor, 005380.KR: Production suspended at engine factory in South Korea's city of Ulsan after employee set himself on fire in protest of anti-union activity - financial press
- AVM.AU: Minmetals Resources' A$1.2B takeover bid for Anvil will expire on Wednesday, with no acceptance from shareholders expect the largest one Trafigura - Australia Financial Review
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
Supplies of arabica beans are limited due to rain in Colombia and Central America damaging crops; Brazil harvest is months away from being ready - financial press
- (CN) CHINA DEC NEW YUAN LOANS (CNY): 640.5B V 575BE (8-month high); 2011 NEW LOANS CNY7.47T V CNY7.95T IN 2010
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV TRADE BALANCE (NZ$): -308M V -300ME (4th consecutive deficit)
- (CN) CHINA DEC M2 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 13.6% V 12.9%E (5-month high); M1 Y/Y: 7.9% V 7.8% PRIOR
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA DEC PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Y/Y: 4.3% V 5.1% PRIOR (15-month low)
- (UK) UK DEC LLOYDS EMPLOYMENT CONFIDENCE: -75 V -75 PRIOR (matches multi-month-low)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: 6.8% V 2.8% PRIOR (21-month high)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC AIG PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX: 41.0 V 39.6 PRIOR (10-month high; 19th consecutive month of contraction)
***Markets Snapshot (as of 04:30GMT)***
- Nikkei225 closed
- S&P/ASX unchanged
- Kospi -1.2%
- Taiwan Taiex -0.7%
- Singapore Straits Times -0.9%
- Shanghai Composite +1.4%
- Hang Seng -0.9%
- S&P Futures -0.4% at 1,269
- Feb Gold -0.5% at $1,609/oz
- March Crude -0.5% at $101.02
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Markets were very cautious today, after several opened slightly to the upside they quickly fell into negative territory despite stronger US economic data on Friday. Europe's debt crisis continues to weigh on the markets ahead of today's meeting of German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy. There are several sovereign bond auctions this week in Europe starting with Greece on Monday and Germany on Tuesday, Spain will sell debt maturing in 2015 and 2016 on Thursday, while Italy will auction three-, five- and 15-year bills on Friday.
- The situation in Iran continues to drive Brent prices higher, testing $113.30 as the UK announced it was sending its newest warship to the Gulf in response to Iranian threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. Iran announced that it had replaced the USD with the Russian ruble for some of its oil transactions with Moscow. SocGen analysts look at situation in Iran: Would be relatively easy for Iran to shut down the Straits of Hormuz; but would need to be able to keep it closed for a long period of time to inflict any economic impact on Western countries relying on the oil. "In the event of a shutdown of the Straits of Hormuz, disrupting 15 Mb/d of crude flows, we would expect Brent prices to spike into the $150-200 range for a limited time period. The disruption would definitely result in an IEA strategic release."
- Yen had strong early gains, testing below ¥76.80 and EUR/JPY extended its decline to an 11 year low of ¥97.50. Japan was closed for a holiday and no comments came from officials or the central bank. EUR/USD fell to a 16-month low below $1.2690. A$ lost over 0.5% against the USD after retail sales came in at a 5-month low with a flat reading m/m.
- China reported December new yuan loans of CNY640.5B, this was an 8-month high after the PBoC loosened lending requirements amid slowing economic growth towards the end of the year. However, 2011 new yuan loans were still below 2010 levels. According to analysts, 2012 new yuan loans will rise about 14% from CNY7.47T in 2011. PBoC Gov Zhou said that China may widen Yuan trading band when capital flows become more balanced; Not a good time to liberalize interest rates now. Reiterated will continue implementation of "prudent" monetary policy with some fine-tuning in 2012.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (CN) Shanghai new home sales -42% w/w; New home prices -17.03% w/w - Uwin
- According to global central bank governors, banks in EU, Japan, and US to be subject to tests for compliance with Basel standards starting in early 2012 0 financial press
- (CN) PBoC to implement a deposit security system, requiring financial institutions to contribute to a fund that would protect customers in case of a bank became insolvent - Chinese press
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) may raise reserve requirement ratio - Korean press
- (HK) According to Centaline Property Agency the secondary market over the weekend saw only 5 home sell v 11 last weekend; Primary market sales remain "brisk" - HK Standard
***Equities***
- SNP: Targeting to double oil output to 50M tons by 2015 v 22.9M tons in 2011 - Chinese press
- BYD, 1211.HK: China Finance Ministry to suspend sales tax on electric vehicles made by domestic automakers BYD and SAIC Motor - China Daily
- Hyundai Motor, 005380.KR: Production suspended at engine factory in South Korea's city of Ulsan after employee set himself on fire in protest of anti-union activity - financial press
- AVM.AU: Minmetals Resources' A$1.2B takeover bid for Anvil will expire on Wednesday, with no acceptance from shareholders expect the largest one Trafigura - Australia Financial Review
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
Supplies of arabica beans are limited due to rain in Colombia and Central America damaging crops; Brazil harvest is months away from being ready - financial press
Tuesday
Asian Market Update: Quiet session ahead of Bund auction; China assures its banks are well positioned
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Welcome, today is Wednesday, 11 Jan 2012, 16:17 Times around the world » New York (USA) 10:17:57 -6h 
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European Market Update: Germany moving closer to a technical recessionKBC: While Hungary’s delegation meets the IMF, the government is ready to change legislationDAILY FOREX AND DOW JONES RECOMMENDED LEVELSUS Market Update: Dow +98 S&P +13 NASDAQ +29European Market Update: Fitch noted that France seen holding onto AAA rating for this year aids risk appetite; Euro nations sovereign review likely to be resolved by end of JanuaryKBC: Hungary’s budget deficit probably below 3% of GDP in 2011DAILY FOREX AND DOW JONES RECOMMENDED LEVELS Najpopularniejsze World-Signals.com: Negative US fundamental data moved EUR/USD with 80 pips.Forex linksEnergy Market PreviewForex hedge fund managementKBC: Higher US PPI extends negative correction in the regionFXCM: Yen Recovers; Euro Marks TimeKBC: CE currencies weaken on global equity sell offNasdaq (qqqq), still working to perfection.... Navigator FXtraders.eu » Article Articles menu Print Print directly Print preview Add to bookmarks Tell a friend Adjust font Enlarge Decrease Article content 11.01.2012 08:40 Wednesday ***Economic Data***- (JP) JAPAN DEC OFFICIAL RESERVE ASSETS: $1.3T V $1.3T PRIOR
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA DEC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.1% V 3.2%E
- (JP) JAPAN NOV PRELIMINARY LEADING INDEX CI: 92.9 V 92.9E; COINCIDENT INDEX CI: 90.3 V 90.3E
- (MA) MALAYSIA NOV TRADE BALANCE (MYR): 9.5B V 11.9BE; Exports y/y: 8.0% v 12.9%e, Imports y/y: 8.4% v 9.4%e
- (JP) JAPAN NOV CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX: -0.2% V +1.2% PRIOR
- (UK) UK DEC BRC SHOP PRICE INDEX Y/Y: 1.7% V 2.0% PRIOR (16-month low)
- (LK) SRI LANKA CENTRAL BANK LEAVES REPURCHASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 7.00%, AS EXPECTED
- (AU) Australia Nov-end Job Vacancies: -3.3% v 3.2% prior
- (NZ) New Zealand Q4 Westpac Employment Confidence Index: 99.6 v 104.2 prior
- (CN) China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE): Lowers Q3 Current Account surplus to $53.4B vs $57.8B prior
***Markets Snapshot (as of 05:00GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.2%
- S&P/ASX +0.8%
- Kospi -0.4%
- Taiwan Taiex +0.3%
- Singapore Straits Times +0.3%
- Shanghai Composite -0.5%
- Hang Seng +0.1%
- S&P Futures -0.2% at 1,283
- Feb Gold +0.4% at $1,637/oz
- March Crude -0.4% at $101.84
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Markets were mixed, with no major driver for the session. Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney won the New Hampshire primary, as expected. Australia job vacancies declined 3.3% after rising nearly the same in the last month. South Korea saw its December unemployment rate hold steady. Commenting ahead of his first meeting in China, US Treasury Sec Geithner said that the main focus of the talks would be on growth, including growing US exports to China. China Vice Premier ahead of the talks indicated that China was willing to increase its trade with the US.
- EUR/USD traded with a bearish tone for the session ahead of the 5-year Bund auction later today and France's meeting with the IMF's Lagarde. USD/JPY was in a tight range for the session trading to the upside. AUD was weaker as many of the major miners were forced to close operations in Western Australia due to cyclone Heidi.
- PBoC Head of Research expects that the global financial crisis will last for another 2-3 years, saying that China banks may face challenges if rate policy is liberalized. PBoC's Zhang affirmed that Chinese banks are in good shape with low non-performing loan ratios; 2012 CPI may remain at 4%, may not decline quickly. PBoC Advisor Li commented to the press that any help for Europe should be linked to IMF quota reform. EU debt crisis will have a short term impact on China's economic because of steps taken to reduce reliance on external demand.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (AU) Australia Foreign Min Rudd: If Australia does not invest in Indonesia it runs the risk of missing a Brazil scale economic opportunity - The Australian
- (CN) China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) researcher Fan Mingtai: Local debt problem will not be solved in the next 2-3 years; Looser policy needed to ease pressure on local govts - China Daily
- (HK) Hong Kong banks increasingly concerned over borrowers' ability to make mortgage payments - SCMP
- (CN) China top 4 banks total yuan loans in the first week of Jan exceeded CNY50B v CNY130B estimated for entire Dec
- (CN) According to Goldman Sachs, PBoC may start to cut key 1-year rates starting in H2 of 2012 - financial press
***Equities***
- Kirin Holdings, 2503.JP: Reports 2011 beer sales 160.3M v 165.9M target, -5.7% y/y; Guides 2012 beer sales at 163.5M cases
- CHT: Reports Dec Net NT$2.2B, Rev NT$16.4B
- Hon Hai Precision, 2317.TW: Reports Dec Rev NT$316.9B, +3.2% m/m and 29.5% y/y
- BXB.AU: Received offer of A$2.2B for paper unit, Recall - financial press
- Shimao Property, 813.HK: Expects Beijing to lift some of the property purchase restrictions imposed in 2011 in mid-2012 - SCMP
***US Equities***
- SMCI: Cuts Q2 guidance $0.24-0.25 v $0.29e; Rev $249-250M v $272Me (previously guided EPS $0.27-0.32; Rev $260-280M on Oct 25th); -5.9% after hours
- DLA: Lowers FY12 guidance due to record high cotton prices; Guides Q2 -$1.62 to -$1.58 v $0.02e; Guides FY12 $0.50-0.60 v $2.05e, R$480-500M v $515Me (guided $2.00-2.15, R$500-520M prior); -22.4% after hours
- SYK: Reports prelim Q4 R$2.2B v $2.23Be; FY11 $3.72-3.74 v $3.73e; R$8.3B v $8.3Be; Guides initial FY12 EPS growing double digits over 2011 (implies at least $4.09 v $4.11e); +1% after hours
- CWTR: Guides Q4 -$0.24 to -$0.18 v -$0.17e (-$0.21 to -$0.13 prior guidance); -5.8% after hours
- CROX: Guides FY11 Rev to exceed $1B v $1.0Be; guides Q4 Rev to high end of prior $200-205M v $204Me; +5.6% after hours
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES CRUDE: +400K V +1ME; GASOLINE: +1.89M V +2ME; DISTILLATE: +850K V +2ME; UTILIZATION: 84.8% V 83.7% W/W
- (CN) China MoF sells 1-yr bills at 2.78% v 3.90% on Sept 13th
- PKX: According to Korea Iron and Steel Association (KOSA), exports of steel from South Korea in 2011 reached a record high at 28.5M tons, +9.3% y/y - Korean press
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